Last updated 2026-08-05 13:40 UTC · regenerated automatically every trading day
Every flag we publish, with everything that happened next — no selection, no deletions, losers included. Statistics, not advice.
All published earnings-gap flags since inception (23 so far). Forward returns fill in as they mature.
| Date | Ticker | Gap | Sector | Band | +5d | +10d | +20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | UBER | -3.2% | Industrials | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | TRMB | +4.5% | Information Technology | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | PSKY | +3.0% | Communication Services | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | LLY | +4.2% | Health Care | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | IRM | +4.0% | Real Estate | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | GILD | +3.8% | Health Care | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | DIS | +4.4% | Communication Services | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | CDW | +4.3% | Information Technology | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | BKNG | +3.4% | Consumer Discretionary | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-05 | ANET | +3.0% | Information Technology | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | WMB | -3.8% | Energy | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | ROK | -5.4% | Industrials | 5-8% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | PLTR | +17.9% | Information Technology | >15% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | OKE | -3.5% | Energy | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | NRG | +5.8% | Utilities | 5-8% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | MPC | -5.0% | Energy | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | IT | +4.1% | Information Technology | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | FIS | -13.3% | Financials | 8-15% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | FANG | -3.4% | Energy | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | DD | +3.2% | Materials | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | CMI | -6.0% | Industrials | 5-8% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | CLX | +4.7% | Consumer Staples | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-04 | ARE | +3.9% | Real Estate | 3-5% | pending | pending | pending |
Forward-return distributions for all 22,290 recorded earnings gaps since 2020, from the flag day's open. This is the historical context behind every briefing.
| Gap band | N | Median 10d | Middle half | Finished higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >15% down | 353 | +0.5% | -7.0% to +7.7% | 52% |
| >15% up | 356 | +0.2% | -6.9% to +9.0% | 51% |
| 8-15% down | 986 | +0.3% | -5.6% to +6.1% | 51% |
| 8-15% up | 1170 | +0.5% | -5.2% to +6.2% | 52% |
| 5-8% down | 1358 | +0.1% | -5.0% to +5.6% | 51% |
| 5-8% up | 1507 | +1.2% | -4.2% to +6.3% | 56% |
| 3-5% down | 1840 | +0.6% | -4.1% to +5.6% | 54% |
| 3-5% up | 2097 | +1.1% | -3.6% to +6.0% | 55% |
| sub-threshold% down | 5829 | +0.9% | -3.3% to +5.4% | 56% |
| sub-threshold% up | 6793 | +0.8% | -3.3% to +5.1% | 55% |
| Gap band | N | Median 5d | Middle half | Finished higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >15% down | 354 | +0.6% | -5.6% to +8.6% | 52% |
| >15% up | 356 | +0.2% | -6.4% to +7.3% | 51% |
| 8-15% down | 986 | -0.1% | -5.4% to +4.8% | 49% |
| 8-15% up | 1170 | +0.1% | -4.8% to +5.2% | 50% |
| 5-8% down | 1358 | +0.2% | -4.2% to +4.5% | 51% |
| 5-8% up | 1507 | +0.4% | -3.5% to +4.8% | 53% |
| 3-5% down | 1840 | +0.4% | -3.7% to +4.3% | 52% |
| 3-5% up | 2097 | +0.6% | -3.4% to +4.3% | 54% |
| sub-threshold% down | 5829 | +0.5% | -3.0% to +4.2% | 54% |
| sub-threshold% up | 6793 | +0.5% | -2.9% to +3.9% | 54% |
| Gap band | N | Median 20d | Middle half | Finished higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >15% down | 354 | +1.9% | -6.8% to +11.1% | 56% |
| >15% up | 356 | +1.2% | -8.2% to +11.3% | 54% |
| 8-15% down | 986 | +0.6% | -6.9% to +7.9% | 53% |
| 8-15% up | 1170 | +1.3% | -6.5% to +8.5% | 54% |
| 5-8% down | 1358 | +0.7% | -6.3% to +7.2% | 53% |
| 5-8% up | 1507 | +1.6% | -4.5% to +8.4% | 57% |
| 3-5% down | 1840 | +0.7% | -5.2% to +7.3% | 54% |
| 3-5% up | 2097 | +1.9% | -4.1% to +7.6% | 58% |
| sub-threshold% down | 5829 | +1.4% | -3.8% to +6.9% | 57% |
| sub-threshold% up | 6793 | +1.3% | -3.9% to +6.7% | 57% |
Selection is mechanical — fixed rules, zero discretion, quiet days included:
Statistics rules: full distributions, never win rates; explicit N everywhere; no slice published below N=100; coarse public-knowledge buckets only. Historical base rates cover 2020–present; the universe skews to current index constituents (survivorship caveat). Forward returns are measured from the flag day's open — the first price available after the gap is observable.